{
  "schemaVersion": "public-0.3.0",
  "datasetVersion": "2026-10-27-v10-release",
  "metadata": {
    "brand": "いくら予報",
    "surveyDate": "2026-10-01",
    "informationCutoff": "2026-10-01",
    "forecastIssuedAt": "2026-10-01",
    "lastObservedYear": 2025,
    "updateMode": "手動更新・原典別の日付管理",
    "basePeriod": {
      "from": 2016,
      "to": 2025,
      "unit": "千尾"
    },
    "scope": "北海道秋サケの年級・海況・回帰から今季と数年先の供給の大きな流れを読む長期予報の試作。公的予測・観測と独自仮説を区別し、価格・品質は観測で確かめる。",
    "siteUpdatedAt": "2026-10-27",
    "modelIssuedAt": "2026-10-03",
    "freshnessPolicy": {
      "storeRecentDays": 3,
      "officialNextCheck": "2026-10-05"
    },
    "coreCheckedAt": "2026-10-01",
    "sourcePageCheckedAt": "2026-10-02",
    "artwork": "ImageGenによるポップな装飾イラスト。観測写真ではない。",
    "futureEvidenceCheckedAt": "2026-10-03"
  },
  "verdict": {
    "score": 1,
    "max": 5,
    "label": "かなり厳しめ",
    "ratio": 53.141857413617146,
    "basisLabel": "前年に対する公式予測",
    "basis": "2026年公式予測 ÷ 2025年実績 × 100",
    "denominatorNote": "前年だけとの比較。全道来遊の平年比、店頭入荷、品質の評価ではありません。",
    "scale": [
      {
        "score": 1,
        "label": "前年から大幅減の予測",
        "range": "60%未満"
      },
      {
        "score": 2,
        "label": "前年より減る予測",
        "range": "60%以上80%未満"
      },
      {
        "score": 3,
        "label": "前年を少し下回る予測",
        "range": "80%以上100%未満"
      },
      {
        "score": 4,
        "label": "前年並み〜少し増える予測",
        "range": "100%以上120%未満"
      },
      {
        "score": 5,
        "label": "前年より大きく増える予測",
        "range": "120%以上"
      }
    ],
    "caveat": "全道来遊ベース。生筋子の入荷・粒・食感は判定しません。",
    "claimIds": [
      "C003"
    ],
    "method": "独自の前年増減目盛り。資源の平年水準・入荷・品質の評価ではない"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "hokkaido-coastal-catch",
      "label": "北海道秋サケ沿岸漁獲尾数（確定値）",
      "definition": "いくら原料に近い北海道の秋サケ沿岸漁獲尾数。生筋子の生産量、輸入品、冷凍在庫、店頭価格を直接表す値ではありません",
      "unit": "千尾",
      "sourceId": "S001",
      "claimIds": [
        "C001"
      ],
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/sr/ggk/akisakegyokakusokuhou.html",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "value": 23477
        },
        {
          "year": 2017,
          "value": 15724
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "value": 20929
        },
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "value": 15223
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "value": 15727
        },
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "value": 16687
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "value": 29399
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "value": 19216
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "value": 15630
        },
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "value": 5616
        }
      ],
      "baseline": {
        "from": 2016,
        "to": 2025,
        "average": 17762.8,
        "recent3Year": {
          "from": 2023,
          "to": 2025,
          "average": 13487.333333333334,
          "median": 15630
        },
        "indexDefinition": "各年の沿岸漁獲尾数 ÷ 2016〜2025年平均 × 100",
        "indexIsProbability": false
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "official-2026-run",
      "label": "2026年北海道秋サケ全道来遊予測（公式）",
      "definition": "沿岸漁獲数と河川捕獲数を合計した来遊数。沿岸漁獲系列とは目的変数が異なるため、Aの計算へ混ぜません",
      "unit": "千尾",
      "sourceId": "S002",
      "claimIds": [
        "C002",
        "C003",
        "C004"
      ],
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.hro.or.jp/upload/57642/R8%E6%9D%A5%E9%81%8A%E4%BA%88%E6%B8%AC.pdf",
      "value": 3645,
      "previousYearValue": 6859,
      "changeRate": 53.1,
      "method": "シブリング法（概ね直近5年級程度に限定）",
      "publishedAt": "2026-06-24",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "juvenile-temperature-window",
      "label": "サケ稚魚の沿岸適水温に関する知見",
      "definition": "No.567では、沿岸水温が5℃を超えた頃に放流を開始し、10℃に達する頃までに終えるのが妥当と説明されています。サケ稚魚にとっての適水温は8〜13℃です。独自窓7〜13℃はこのアプリの仮説として別扱いにしています。年別・海区別の連続系列としてはこの版に未搭載です",
      "unit": "℃",
      "sourceId": "S008",
      "claimIds": [
        "C015"
      ],
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.hro.or.jp/fisheries/publication/ima/o7u1kr0000008j3k.html",
      "range": {
        "releaseWindow": {
          "startAbove": 5,
          "endAround": 10,
          "label": "放流目安：5℃超で開始〜10℃頃に終了"
        },
        "preferredWindow": {
          "min": 8,
          "max": 13,
          "label": "適水温：8〜13℃"
        },
        "hypothesisWindow": {
          "min": 7,
          "max": 13,
          "label": "独自仮説窓：7〜13℃",
          "status": "hypothesis"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "official-return-context",
      "label": "道総研の全道来遊実績（背景）",
      "definition": "沿岸漁獲と河川捕獲を含む全道来遊の背景値。沿岸漁獲比較へ混ぜません",
      "unit": "千尾",
      "sourceIds": [
        "S005",
        "S003"
      ],
      "claimIds": [
        "C025",
        "C026"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "value": 18630,
          "sourceId": "S005",
          "claimId": "C025",
          "valuePrecision": "本文の万尾丸め値を千尾換算"
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "value": 17696,
          "sourceId": "S003",
          "claimId": "C026",
          "locator": "p.3 北海道総計・令和6年来遊数（千尾）"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "official-forecast-performance",
      "label": "道総研公式予測に対する実績比",
      "definition": "各年の実績来遊数 ÷ 公式予測 × 100。全道来遊の評価で、沿岸漁獲のA/B性能ではありません",
      "unit": "%",
      "sourceIds": [
        "S005",
        "S004",
        "S003",
        "S002"
      ],
      "claimIds": [
        "C027",
        "C028",
        "C029",
        "C053"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "value": 111,
          "sourceId": "S005",
          "claimId": "C027",
          "publicationYear": 2022
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "value": 65,
          "sourceId": "S004",
          "claimId": "C028",
          "publicationYear": 2024
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "value": 104,
          "sourceId": "S003",
          "claimId": "C029",
          "publicationYear": 2025
        },
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "value": 60,
          "sourceId": "S002",
          "claimId": "C053",
          "publicationYear": 2026
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "coastal-catch-2026-inseason",
      "label": "令和8年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（全道・累計）",
      "definition": "漁期途中の速報累計。確定値ではなく、年間の漁獲量・店頭入荷・粒・食感は示しません。",
      "status": "preliminary",
      "asOf": "2026-09-20",
      "period": "9月中旬",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "unit": "尾",
      "value": 1614620,
      "previousSamePeriod": 1520130,
      "yoySamePeriodRatio": 106.2,
      "yoySamePeriodDiff": 94490,
      "caveat": "漁期途中の沿岸累計。年計、全道来遊予測、近所の入荷とは別です。",
      "nextUpdate": "9月下旬分の掲載確認",
      "sourceId": "S029",
      "claimIds": [
        "C037"
      ],
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/1/3/2/2/1/6/4/0/_/9%E4%B8%AD.pdf",
      "pageUrl": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/sr/ggk/269902.html",
      "pageUpdatedAt": "2026-09-29",
      "publishedAt": null,
      "nextCheckAt": "2026-10-05",
      "regions": [
        {
          "name": "オホーツク",
          "value": 1162510,
          "previous": 947596,
          "ratio": 122.7
        },
        {
          "name": "根室",
          "value": 107611,
          "previous": 87222,
          "ratio": 123.4
        },
        {
          "name": "えりも以東",
          "value": 233446,
          "previous": 207941,
          "ratio": 112.3
        },
        {
          "name": "えりも以西",
          "value": 41785,
          "previous": 116901,
          "ratio": 35.7
        },
        {
          "name": "日本海",
          "value": 69268,
          "previous": 160470,
          "ratio": 43.2
        }
      ],
      "calculatedYoySamePeriodRatio": 106.2159157440482
    },
    {
      "id": "coastal-catch-sep10-history",
      "label": "各年の9月10日現在の沿岸漁獲累計（速報・全道）",
      "definition": "各年9月10日を対象とした当年PDFの本年欄。公表日は対象日とは別。2019のみ翌年資料の前年欄。",
      "unit": "尾",
      "asOf": "各年9月10日",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "value": 1705210,
          "sourceId": "S020",
          "claimId": "C034",
          "column": "前年欄",
          "note": "令和元年PDFが画像で読めないため、令和2年PDFの前年欄（後日修正値の可能性）",
          "shareOfFinalPct": 11.2
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "value": 1572577,
          "sourceId": "S020",
          "claimId": "C034",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "shareOfFinalPct": 10
        },
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "value": 1733675,
          "sourceId": "S019",
          "claimId": "C033",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "shareOfFinalPct": 10.4
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "value": 1400404,
          "sourceId": "S021",
          "claimId": "C035",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "shareOfFinalPct": 4.8
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "value": 1011179,
          "sourceId": "S018",
          "claimId": "C032",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "shareOfFinalPct": 5.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "value": 432218,
          "sourceId": "S022",
          "claimId": "C036",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "shareOfFinalPct": 2.8
        },
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "value": 564160,
          "sourceId": "S017",
          "claimId": "C031",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "shareOfFinalPct": 10
        }
      ],
      "summary": {
        "years": "2019〜2025",
        "n": 7,
        "mean": 1202775,
        "median": 1400404,
        "currentVsMeanPct": 66.3,
        "currentVsMedianPct": 56.9,
        "rankDescending": 6,
        "rankOf": 8,
        "shareOfFinalRangePct": [
          2.8,
          11.2
        ],
        "currentVsMeanExcl2019Pct": 71.3,
        "basis": "9月10日対象・各年PDF本年欄。2019のみ翌年PDF前年欄。公表日は対象日と別。"
      },
      "limits": [
        "採用は当年PDFの本年欄。対象日は9/10であり、公表日は別。2019だけ翌年の前年欄。",
        "この6組は翌年資料の前年欄が増加している。速報一般が常に増加修正されるとは限らない。",
        "2019年のみ令和元年PDFが画像で読めず、令和2年PDFの前年欄（後日修正値の可能性）を使用。2018年は欠年",
        "序盤累計が年間に占める割合は年により2.8〜11.2%。序盤累計から年間を推定しません"
      ],
      "sourceIds": [
        "S017",
        "S018",
        "S019",
        "S020",
        "S021",
        "S022"
      ],
      "claimIds": [
        "C031",
        "C032",
        "C033",
        "C034",
        "C035",
        "C036"
      ],
      "adjacentYearCheck": [
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "ownYearPdf": 1572577,
          "nextYearPdfPriorColumn": 1589357,
          "diff": 16780,
          "diffPct": 1.07
        },
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "ownYearPdf": 1733675,
          "nextYearPdfPriorColumn": 1777563,
          "diff": 43888,
          "diffPct": 2.53
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "ownYearPdf": 1400404,
          "nextYearPdfPriorColumn": 1400568,
          "diff": 164,
          "diffPct": 0.01
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "ownYearPdf": 1011179,
          "nextYearPdfPriorColumn": 1036394,
          "diff": 25215,
          "diffPct": 2.49
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "ownYearPdf": 432218,
          "nextYearPdfPriorColumn": 436506,
          "diff": 4288,
          "diffPct": 0.99
        },
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "ownYearPdf": 564160,
          "nextYearPdfPriorColumn": 565024,
          "diff": 864,
          "diffPct": 0.15
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "coastal-catch-2026-sep10-archive",
      "label": "9月10日現在の過去速報（保持）",
      "definition": "漁期途中の速報累計。確定値ではなく、年間の漁獲量・店頭入荷・粒・食感は示しません。",
      "status": "preliminary",
      "asOf": "2026-09-10",
      "period": "9月上旬",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-19",
      "unit": "尾",
      "value": 797363,
      "previousSamePeriod": 565024,
      "yoySamePeriodRatio": 141.1,
      "yoySamePeriodDiff": 232339,
      "caveat": "前年（2025年）は沿岸漁獲が掲載10年で最少の年。同じ9月10日時点の過去7年と並べると、今季は平年より少なめです。ただし9月10日時点の累計は、その年の最終漁獲の2.8〜11.2%にすぎず、年間の多い少ないは示しません。上の5段階（6月公表の事前予測ベース）とは基準が違います。",
      "nextUpdate": null,
      "sourceId": "S016",
      "claimIds": [
        "C030"
      ],
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/1/3/2/1/6/2/9/2/_/9%E4%B8%8A.pdf",
      "pageUrl": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/sr/ggk/269902.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "coastal-catch-sep20-history",
      "label": "同じ9月20日の沿岸累計",
      "unit": "尾",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "value": 3898532,
          "previousSamePeriod": 3762127,
          "ratio": 103.6,
          "sourceId": "S023",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "claimId": "C038"
        },
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "value": 4925064,
          "previousSamePeriod": 3980868,
          "ratio": 123.7,
          "sourceId": "S024",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "claimId": "C039"
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "value": 4465008,
          "previousSamePeriod": 4929678,
          "ratio": 90.6,
          "sourceId": "S025",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "claimId": "C040"
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "value": 2854165,
          "previousSamePeriod": 4499743,
          "ratio": 63.4,
          "sourceId": "S026",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "claimId": "C041"
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "value": 1870383,
          "previousSamePeriod": 2920073,
          "ratio": 64.1,
          "sourceId": "S027",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "claimId": "C042"
        },
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "value": 1537182,
          "previousSamePeriod": 1877822,
          "ratio": 81.9,
          "sourceId": "S028",
          "column": "本年欄",
          "claimId": "C043"
        }
      ],
      "supplement2019": {
        "year": 2019,
        "value": 3762127,
        "sourceId": "S023",
        "column": "前年欄",
        "excludedFromPrimary": true
      },
      "definition": "2020〜2025の初報本年欄を均質な6年比較として使用。2019翌年欄は補足のみ。",
      "summary": {
        "years": "2020〜2025",
        "n": 6,
        "mean": 3258389,
        "median": 3376348.5,
        "currentVsMeanPct": 49.55270840897143,
        "rankDescending": 6,
        "rankOf": 7
      }
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "model": "official",
      "forecastIssuedAt": "2026-06-24",
      "lastObservedYear": 2025,
      "targetYear": 2026,
      "target": 2026,
      "horizon": 1,
      "value": 3645,
      "unit": "千尾",
      "status": "official",
      "changeRate": 53.1,
      "claimIds": [
        "C003"
      ],
      "assumptions": [
        "公式の全道来遊予測",
        "沿岸漁獲尾数と目的変数が異なるためA/Bへ混合しない"
      ],
      "yearsFromIssue": 0
    },
    {
      "model": "A",
      "baseline": "previous-year",
      "forecastIssuedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "lastObservedYear": 2025,
      "targetYear": 2026,
      "target": 2026,
      "horizon": 1,
      "value": 5616,
      "unit": "千尾",
      "status": "reference",
      "claimIds": [
        "C001"
      ],
      "assumptions": [
        "前年（2025年）の沿岸漁獲尾数を据置"
      ],
      "yearsFromIssue": 0
    },
    {
      "model": "A",
      "baseline": "previous-year",
      "forecastIssuedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "lastObservedYear": 2025,
      "targetYear": 2027,
      "target": 2027,
      "horizon": 2,
      "value": 5616,
      "unit": "千尾",
      "status": "reference",
      "claimIds": [
        "C001"
      ],
      "assumptions": [
        "前年（2025年）の沿岸漁獲尾数を据置"
      ],
      "yearsFromIssue": 1
    },
    {
      "model": "A",
      "baseline": "previous-year",
      "forecastIssuedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "lastObservedYear": 2025,
      "targetYear": 2028,
      "target": 2028,
      "horizon": 3,
      "value": 5616,
      "unit": "千尾",
      "status": "reference",
      "claimIds": [
        "C001"
      ],
      "assumptions": [
        "前年（2025年）の沿岸漁獲尾数を据置"
      ],
      "yearsFromIssue": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "A",
      "baseline": "previous-year",
      "forecastIssuedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "lastObservedYear": 2025,
      "targetYear": 2029,
      "target": 2029,
      "horizon": 4,
      "value": 5616,
      "unit": "千尾",
      "status": "reference",
      "claimIds": [
        "C001"
      ],
      "assumptions": [
        "前年（2025年）の沿岸漁獲尾数を据置"
      ],
      "yearsFromIssue": 3
    },
    {
      "model": "A",
      "baseline": "previous-year",
      "forecastIssuedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "lastObservedYear": 2025,
      "targetYear": 2030,
      "target": 2030,
      "horizon": 5,
      "value": 5616,
      "unit": "千尾",
      "status": "reference",
      "claimIds": [
        "C001"
      ],
      "assumptions": [
        "前年（2025年）の沿岸漁獲尾数を据置"
      ],
      "yearsFromIssue": 4
    },
    {
      "model": "A",
      "baseline": "median-3-year",
      "forecastIssuedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "lastObservedYear": 2025,
      "targetYear": 2026,
      "target": 2026,
      "horizon": 1,
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          "status": "exploratory",
          "value": 9378.63672944142
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "cohortYear": 2025,
          "springYear": 2026,
          "status": "missing-input",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "year": 2030,
          "cohortYear": 2026,
          "springYear": 2027,
          "status": "missing-input",
          "value": null
        }
      ],
      "summary": "今回の固定設定（罰則1）では、環境候補を加えても、この5年の3年中央値の平均誤差を改善できませんでした。現時点で複雑さに見合う効果は確認できません。",
      "limitations": [
        "訓練は最低5年、検証は2021〜2025の5年。",
        "5沿岸域は海区全体の代表性を保証しない。",
        "4年魚だけの時間対応を仮定し、年齢混合・実放流時期・体サイズは未考慮。",
        "入荷・価格・粒・食感を予測するモデルではない。",
        "過去の気象再解析と改訂放流値を使う探索的検証。"
      ]
    },
    "computeMilliseconds": 4.061799999999998
  },
  "bGate": {
    "status": "blocked",
    "evaluationStatus": "未評価",
    "area": "石狩地方沿岸 area109",
    "year": 2024,
    "waterSamples": [
      {
        "date": "2024-04-01",
        "valueC": 6.45
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-04-14",
        "valueC": 8.06
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-05-27",
        "valueC": 13
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-05-28",
        "valueC": 12.99
      }
    ],
    "releaseAmount": null,
    "reason": "水温サンプルは取得したが、同年同海域の放流実績キーを取得できていない。計画値は実績に代用しない。",
    "claimIds": [
      "C017",
      "C020",
      "C021"
    ],
    "sourceIds": [
      "S006",
      "S010",
      "S013"
    ]
  },
  "futureReference": {
    "forecastIssuedAt": "2026-09-14",
    "lastObservedYear": 2025,
    "status": "separate-from-evaluation",
    "years": [
      2026,
      2027,
      2028,
      2029,
      2030
    ],
    "note": "過去評価・公式来遊予測と別表示"
  },
  "chapters": [
    {
      "id": "chapter-1",
      "number": "01",
      "title": "今年はどう？予測と、今の漁を重ねる",
      "body": "漁期前の道総研予測は、2026年の全道来遊3,645千尾。前年実績6,859千尾の53.1%です。一方、9月20日現在の沿岸漁獲は1,614,620尾、前年同期の106.2%。見える方向が違うのは、前者が沿岸と河川を合わせた年間の予測、後者が漁期途中の沿岸実績だからです。どちらか一方を捨てず、対象と日付を分けて読みます。",
      "counter": "速報の同日6年平均との位置は上の比較図へ。序盤の多さを年計へ直結させず、全道の数を近所の在庫へ変換しません。",
      "next": "新しい旬報と近所の購入記録が出たら、今季の見方を更新します。",
      "claimIds": [
        "C002",
        "C003",
        "C037"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "chapter-2",
      "number": "02",
      "title": "豊凶の差を、どう読む？",
      "body": "掲載10年の沿岸確定値では、2022年29,399千尾に対し2025年5,616千尾。2023〜2025年の中央値は15,630千尾です。年の差が大きいからこそ、低かった前年だけとの比較では回復を大きく見せることがあります。同じ対象日・同じ沿岸定義で複数年を並べ、前年比と期間平均比を別々に示します。来遊数の2024年17,696千尾は河川捕獲も含み、沿岸系列へ足しません。",
      "counter": "原因は尾数表だけでは分かりません。高水温や赤潮の地域的な影響、年齢構成などを調べる必要があります。本文丸め値と表の精密値も区別します。",
      "next": "今季は同じ旬の過去比較を見てから、海区差と商品産地を確かめます。",
      "claimIds": [
        "C001",
        "C026",
        "C008",
        "C037"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "chapter-3",
      "number": "03",
      "title": "何年前の海が、今年につながる？",
      "body": "2025年に戻った4年魚は2021年生、5年魚は2020年生です。2021年秋に採卵した年級は、概ね2022年春に放流され、2025年秋に4年魚として戻ります。放流表の年度は親が戻って採卵した年度であり、実際に稚魚を放した暦年より1年前です。FRAの簡易回帰率は4年前の年級を基準にしますが、すべての魚が同じ年齢で戻るわけではありません。",
      "counter": "2〜8年魚の回帰が確認されています。4年魚だけの近似には年齢混合の誤差があり、翌年の5年魚を含む年級別回帰は別集計が必要です。",
      "next": "放流年度・実放流年・対象回帰年の3つを揃えてから水温と結びます。",
      "claimIds": [
        "C051",
        "C052",
        "C010",
        "C011",
        "C012"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "chapter-4",
      "number": "04",
      "title": "暖かければ良い、寒ければ悪い？",
      "body": "No.567では、5℃を超える頃に放流を開始し、10℃頃までに終える目安と、8〜13℃の適水温帯が説明されています。2020年の研究では放流時期に加え、稚魚が適温期に十分なサイズへ育つことの重要性が示されました。水温窓の日数だけでは餌・稚魚の大きさ・実放流時期が分かりません。今回の環境候補は、選んだ5沿岸域の3〜7月について8〜13℃の日数割合を均等平均した探索指標です。",
      "counter": "5地点は5海区全体を代表する面積平均ではありません。独自7〜13℃案は未検証のため今回の計算には採用していません。沖合の成長や回帰期の環境も未考慮です。",
      "next": "環境情報の追加で実際の誤差が減るかを、簡易モデルと同じ年で検証します。",
      "claimIds": [
        "C015",
        "C013",
        "C014",
        "C046",
        "C047",
        "C048",
        "C049",
        "C050"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "chapter-5",
      "number": "05",
      "title": "大粒・張り・皮残り、全部同じ好み？",
      "body": "大きな粒と、プリッと弾けて皮が残りにくい食感は別々の観察項目です。卵の成熟、膜の状態、漁獲時期、鮮度保持、加工によって仕上がりは変わります。釧路水試の加工研究では、醤油漬け向けには9月〜10月上旬のA〜Bランク原料など、製品によって適性が異なることを示しています。魚勝の購入記録で分かったのは北海道産の生筋子、137g、税込2,929円。粒や食感、大きい一腹かどうかは記録がありません。",
      "counter": "古い加工研究の条件を、現在の全店の商品や家庭の仕上がりへ一律に当てはめません。鮭の平均体重や漁獲尾数から卵径・食感を保証できません。",
      "next": "店頭では産地・生/解凍・販売単位・重量を、調理後は張りと皮残りを自分の感想として残します。",
      "claimIds": [
        "C022",
        "C023",
        "C024"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "chapter-6",
      "number": "06",
      "title": "予報が外れるとき、どう使う？",
      "body": "公式来遊予測に対する実績比は、2021年111%、2023年65%、2024年104%、2025年60%。資料の刊行年ではなく対象の実績年を揃えます。独自実験では、沿岸尾数の直近値と3年中央値を起点ごとに計算し、同じ検証年だけで比較しました。放流と水温を加えた全道候補も実計算しましたが、小標本の結果で、現在の購入判断へ採用する根拠にはまだ足りません。",
      "counter": "最終改訂値による後ろ向き再現で、当時の資料版を使った予測性能ではありません。誤差幅は経験値で、何％で当たるという確率表示はできません。",
      "next": "新しい確定値で予測を評価し、環境情報の効果と更新コストを記録します。",
      "claimIds": [
        "C027",
        "C028",
        "C029",
        "C053",
        "C045"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "stores": [
    {
      "id": "uokatsu",
      "name": "魚勝",
      "area": "札幌市中央区北10条西19丁目",
      "url": "https://www.uokatsu.jp/",
      "directoryCheckedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "neighborhood": "市場の近く",
      "observations": [
        {
          "id": "uokatsu-20260919",
          "observedAt": "2026-09-19",
          "observationMethod": "商品ラベルの表示（店頭で購入）",
          "product": "生筋子",
          "origin": "北海道産（秋鮭）",
          "priceYen": 2929,
          "taxIncluded": true,
          "salesUnit": null,
          "weightG": 137,
          "freshOrFrozen": null,
          "particleNote": null,
          "labelUnitPrice": {
            "yen": 1980,
            "per": "100g",
            "taxIncluded": false
          },
          "unitPriceNote": "ラベル単価1,980円/100g（税抜）×137g÷100×1.08＝2,929.632円。ラベル総額2,929円との差は約0.63円で、表示額と整合します。店舗の端数処理方式は未確認。",
          "evidenceType": "本人が商品ラベルから確認",
          "sourceRecord": "HANDOFF §119〜121"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "aeon-soen",
      "name": "イオン札幌桑園店",
      "area": "札幌市中央区北8条西14丁目28番地",
      "url": "https://www.aeon.jp/sc/sapporosoen/",
      "directoryCheckedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "neighborhood": "桑園駅の近く",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "coop-soen",
      "name": "コープさっぽろ そうえん店",
      "area": "札幌市中央区北10条西23丁目1-1",
      "url": "https://map.sapporo.coop/store/detail/0097/",
      "directoryCheckedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "neighborhood": "二十四軒寄り",
      "observations": []
    }
  ],
  "shoppingTarget": {
    "product": "大粒でプリッとした生筋子（はらこ）",
    "desiredTexture": [
      "張りがある",
      "プチッとする",
      "皮が残りにくい"
    ],
    "wholeBellyPriceYen": {
      "preferredMin": 3000,
      "preferredMax": 4000,
      "bargainMax": 2999,
      "type": "希望予算"
    },
    "priceUnit": "一腹の総額。重量不明時は100g単価を表示しない"
  },
  "forecastYears": [
    2026,
    2027,
    2028,
    2029,
    2030
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "S001",
      "title": "北海道秋さけ漁獲速報（旬報）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/sr/ggk/akisakegyokakusokuhou.html",
      "note": "2016〜2025年の全道沿岸漁獲確定値",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S002",
      "title": "令和8年 北海道の秋サケ資源状況（来遊予測）",
      "url": "https://www.hro.or.jp/upload/57642/R8%E6%9D%A5%E9%81%8A%E4%BA%88%E6%B8%AC.pdf",
      "note": "2026年全道来遊予測3,645千尾。p.1/p.3",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "2026年全道来遊予測3,645千尾。p.1/p.3",
      "publishedAt": "2026-06-24"
    },
    {
      "id": "S003",
      "title": "令和7年 北海道の秋サケ資源状況",
      "url": "https://www.hro.or.jp/upload/53840/R7akisakeyosou.pdf",
      "note": "2024年実績・2025年予測。p.1/p.3",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "2024年実績・2025年予測。p.1/p.3",
      "publishedAt": "2025-06-23"
    },
    {
      "id": "S004",
      "title": "令和6年 北海道の秋サケ資源状況",
      "url": "https://www.hro.or.jp/upload/51232/R6akisakeyosoku.pdf",
      "note": "2023年実績・2024年予測。p.1/p.3",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "2023年実績・2024年予測。p.1/p.3",
      "publishedAt": "2024-06-21"
    },
    {
      "id": "S005",
      "title": "令和4年 北海道の秋サケ資源状況",
      "url": "https://www.hro.or.jp/upload/35732/R4akisakeyosoku.pdf",
      "note": "2021年実績・2022年予測。p.1/p.3",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "2021年実績・2022年予測。p.1/p.3",
      "publishedAt": "2022-06-27"
    },
    {
      "id": "S006",
      "title": "FRA サケの放流数と来遊数及び回帰率の推移",
      "url": "https://www.fra.go.jp/shigen/salmon/kaiki.html",
      "note": "放流年度・来遊・単純回帰率の定義。更新2026-04-17",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S007",
      "title": "北海道におけるサケ稚魚の放流パターン及び回帰率の変遷",
      "url": "https://www.fra.go.jp/home/kenkyushokai/book/salmon/files/srr014_p21-24.pdf",
      "note": "北海道5海区、1976〜2015年級。pp.21-24",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "北海道5海区、1976〜2015年級。pp.21-24"
    },
    {
      "id": "S008",
      "title": "試験研究は今 No.567",
      "url": "https://www.hro.or.jp/fisheries/publication/ima/o7u1kr0000008j3k.html",
      "note": "5℃超で開始、10℃頃終了、適水温8〜13℃。公表2006-05-08",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S009",
      "title": "サケ人工種苗生産",
      "url": "https://www.hro.or.jp/fisheries/h3mfcd0000000gsj/o7u1kr000000019q/o7u1kr000000d760/o7u1kr000000dc2m.html",
      "note": "海区別掲載実績と種苗条件。最終更新2013-03-01",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S010",
      "title": "気象庁 北海道沿岸域の海面水温情報",
      "url": "https://www.data.jma.go.jp/kaiyou/data/db/kaikyo/series/engan/engandata_SP.html",
      "note": "area109、速報0.1度/再解析0.25度",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S011",
      "title": "NOAA/NCEI OISST v2.1",
      "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst",
      "note": "全球0.25度日次解析。仕様のみ",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S012",
      "title": "道総研 海況速報",
      "url": "https://www.hro.or.jp/fisheries/research/central/section/kankyou/sokuhou.html",
      "note": "北海道周辺海況速報の資料入口",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S013",
      "title": "さけ・ます人工ふ化放流計画",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/sr/ggk/sakemasuhouryukeikaku.html",
      "note": "2026年度計画入口。2024年実績の代用不可",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S014",
      "title": "サケ卵加工品の品質および製造基準",
      "url": "https://www.hro.or.jp/upload/36913/24sake.pdf",
      "note": "釧路水試。表1〜3、卵膜・粒揃い等",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S015",
      "title": "農林水産省 いくら醤油漬け",
      "url": "https://www.maff.go.jp/j/keikaku/syokubunka/traditional-foods/menu/ikurasyouyuzuke.html",
      "note": "生筋子・すじこ・塩いくら・醤油漬けの製法説明",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S016",
      "title": "令和8年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（旬報）9月上旬",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/1/3/2/1/6/2/9/2/_/9%E4%B8%8A.pdf",
      "note": "9月10日現在の全道総計。北海道連合海区漁業調整委員会調べ。取得2026-09-19",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S017",
      "title": "令和7年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月10日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/1/2/1/8/6/8/0/7/_/R70910sake.pdf",
      "note": "2025年（本年）の全道総計。前年欄（2024）は採用せず",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S018",
      "title": "令和5年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月10日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/9/6/3/2/8/2/1/_/R05_0910sake.pdf",
      "note": "2023年（本年）の全道総計。前年欄（2022）は採用せず",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S019",
      "title": "令和3年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月10日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/4/9/7/4/3/0/5/_/030910-1.pdf",
      "note": "2021年（本年）の全道総計。前年欄（2020）は採用せず",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S020",
      "title": "令和2年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月10日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/2/4/5/6/5/9/2/_/020910-1.pdf",
      "note": "2020年（本年）・2019年（前年）の全道総計",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S021",
      "title": "令和4年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月10日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/7/7/6/3/6/1/7/_/R04_0910sake.pdf",
      "note": "2022年（本年）の全道総計",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S022",
      "title": "令和6年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月10日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/1/0/7/2/6/9/7/5/_/R060910sake.pdf",
      "note": "2024年（本年）の全道総計",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "本文・該当表"
    },
    {
      "id": "S030",
      "title": "2019年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月20日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/9/0/5/2/1/6/0/_/R10920-1.pdf",
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      "sha256": "ecb8ca25c918ea903a0e524c46d155b95d7dbabb9048637e8fcca67a9454dc3c",
      "locator": "p.1 総計 本年・前年欄",
      "note": "画像PDF・機械抽出不可。数値は平均に採用していません。"
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    {
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      "title": "2020年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月20日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/2/4/5/6/5/9/1/_/020920-1.pdf",
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      "locator": "p.1 総計 本年・前年欄",
      "note": "各年の本年欄と前年欄を別保存。対象日と公表日は別。"
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    {
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      "title": "2021年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月20日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/4/9/7/4/3/0/6/_/030920-1.pdf",
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      "locator": "p.1 総計 本年・前年欄",
      "note": "各年の本年欄と前年欄を別保存。対象日と公表日は別。"
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      "title": "2022年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月20日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/7/7/6/3/6/1/8/_/R04_0920sake.pdf",
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      "locator": "p.1 総計 本年・前年欄",
      "note": "各年の本年欄と前年欄を別保存。対象日と公表日は別。"
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      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/9/6/3/2/8/2/2/_/R05_0920sake.pdf",
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      "locator": "p.1 総計 本年・前年欄",
      "note": "各年の本年欄と前年欄を別保存。対象日と公表日は別。"
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      "title": "2024年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月20日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/1/0/7/3/6/0/3/2/_/R060920sake.pdf",
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      "locator": "p.1 総計 本年・前年欄",
      "note": "各年の本年欄と前年欄を別保存。対象日と公表日は別。"
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      "title": "2025年 秋さけ沿岸漁獲速報（9月20日現在）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/1/2/2/1/9/8/2/8/_/R70920sake.pdf",
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      "locator": "p.1 総計 本年・前年欄",
      "note": "各年の本年欄と前年欄を別保存。対象日と公表日は別。"
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      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/1/3/2/2/1/6/4/0/_/9%E4%B8%AD.pdf",
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      "locator": "p.1 総計 本年・前年欄",
      "note": "各年の本年欄と前年欄を別保存。対象日と公表日は別。"
    },
    {
      "id": "S031",
      "title": "FRA 道県別サケ放流数1970〜2024",
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      "locator": "Sheet1 C列 北海道、2012〜2024年度",
      "note": "単位千尾。年は親魚採卵年度、翌春に放流（FRA定義S006）。改訂後の値。"
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      "id": "S032",
      "title": "気象庁 area102 紋別地方沿岸 日次水温",
      "url": "https://www.data.jma.go.jp/kaiyou/data/db/kaikyo/series/engan/txt/area102.txt",
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      "note": "全期間再解析153日/年。8〜13℃日数を数え、選定5域の均等平均。海区全体の面積平均ではありません。"
    },
    {
      "id": "S033",
      "title": "気象庁 area105 根室海峡 日次水温",
      "url": "https://www.data.jma.go.jp/kaiyou/data/db/kaikyo/series/engan/txt/area105.txt",
      "sha256": "fcab0509b122f8e0fb7df36342762df6b4e5a48561a1223593f41901fa24caf3",
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      "note": "全期間再解析153日/年。8〜13℃日数を数え、選定5域の均等平均。海区全体の面積平均ではありません。"
    },
    {
      "id": "S034",
      "title": "気象庁 area121 十勝地方沿岸 日次水温",
      "url": "https://www.data.jma.go.jp/kaiyou/data/db/kaikyo/series/engan/txt/area121.txt",
      "sha256": "51617274e5f8a3ccb3ed73fd5a0d85b9efda41e7eea828af0daae17b0ae87a0d",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "2013〜2025各年3月1日〜7月31日・flag R",
      "note": "全期間再解析153日/年。8〜13℃日数を数え、選定5域の均等平均。海区全体の面積平均ではありません。"
    },
    {
      "id": "S035",
      "title": "気象庁 area119 胆振中・東部沿岸 日次水温",
      "url": "https://www.data.jma.go.jp/kaiyou/data/db/kaikyo/series/engan/txt/area119.txt",
      "sha256": "e9c7631dd01a41dd2e77af3829a5a9247dc7acd599c341eb751119a7a2736e86",
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      "locator": "2013〜2025各年3月1日〜7月31日・flag R",
      "note": "全期間再解析153日/年。8〜13℃日数を数え、選定5域の均等平均。海区全体の面積平均ではありません。"
    },
    {
      "id": "S036",
      "title": "気象庁 area109 石狩地方沿岸 日次水温",
      "url": "https://www.data.jma.go.jp/kaiyou/data/db/kaikyo/series/engan/txt/area109.txt",
      "sha256": "92f771c6a880e6685dcf3e92e2c6a090f4315c597ce38277ce2355f7ae850e17",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-01",
      "locator": "2013〜2025各年3月1日〜7月31日・flag R",
      "note": "全期間再解析153日/年。8〜13℃日数を数え、選定5域の均等平均。海区全体の面積平均ではありません。"
    },
    {
      "id": "S037",
      "title": "FRA SALMON情報20号：2025年漁期の採卵状況",
      "url": "https://www.fra.go.jp/home/kenkyushokai/book/salmon/files/srr020.pdf",
      "locator": "p.33 サケ、北海道の採卵数は計画数の83%（1月10日現在）",
      "subjectDate": "2026-01-10",
      "publishedAt": "2026-03",
      "note": "2025年漁期の北海道サケ採卵の速報。83%は計画達成率であり、前年比・放流実績・来遊予測ではない。",
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      "title": "北海道 令和8年度 海区別さけ・ます親魚捕獲採卵及び放流計画",
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      "locator": "p.1（印刷頁3）全道計・サケ・稚魚放流予定数 893,320千尾",
      "subjectDate": "2026年度の計画",
      "note": "サケの放流予定数。実績・2030年の来遊数ではない。約4年で戻る群の生産段階の参考。掲載ページ更新2026-08-25、PDF個別公表日は未記録。",
      "sha256": "e1f60461c5d3b17ccc2e2ff84c487e81100dd2dc70541741a0827b52fddcde85",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-03",
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    {
      "id": "S039",
      "title": "FRA 2026さけます来遊状況 第2報・年齢組成と体サイズ",
      "url": "https://www.fra.go.jp/shigen/salmon/sokuhou/r08salmon/R8comment_0930_age.pdf",
      "locator": "p.1（組成・比較・平均重量）、p.3（重量詳細）",
      "subjectDate": "2026-09-30",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-16",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-17",
      "sha256": "dd2c58faa4e2ddf9e912e0a6c3c385f3396eb3e386200e326d4b52d1b1d7755d",
      "note": "北海道の3歳来遊39%/11%、構成比2%は年齢査定途中。来季の予測率・査定標本数ではない。魚重量と卵径の関係は未確認。"
    },
    {
      "id": "S040",
      "title": "FRA 2026さけます来遊状況 第2報・来遊状況",
      "url": "https://www.fra.go.jp/shigen/salmon/sokuhou/r08salmon/R8comment_0930_return.pdf",
      "locator": "p.1・表1",
      "subjectDate": "2026-09-30",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-16",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-17",
      "sha256": "e146997aa0f0e5b46ae621e5ce52e6293a13c201345795191303c0b03a6939d8",
      "note": "全国来遊239万尾は9/30時点の速報。前年68%・平年12%。北海道だけの数や年間確定値ではない。"
    },
    {
      "id": "S041",
      "title": "ADF&G SP26-08 2026年アラスカ商業サケ漁獲事前予測",
      "url": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/FedAidPDFs/SP26-08.pdf",
      "locator": "印刷p.1／PDF11ページ、ABSTRACT・INTRODUCTION",
      "subjectDate": "2026年漁期・事前予測",
      "publishedAt": "2026-04",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-17",
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    },
    {
      "id": "S042",
      "title": "北海道 令和7年度 秋さけの親魚確保及び適正利用を図るための実施方針（案）",
      "url": "https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/fs/1/2/0/6/7/5/4/3/_/%E8%B3%87%E6%96%992.pdf",
      "locator": "資料1-1・PDF p.1、第1 2(2)：揚網等による自主規制",
      "subjectDate": "2025年度の方針案",
      "publishedAt": "2025-06（案・日付未確定）",
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      "locator": "p.1 総計（漁獲尾数・金額・前年同期）",
      "subjectDate": "2026-10-10",
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      "title": "札幌市中央卸売市場 公式トップ・緊急メンテナンスのお知らせ",
      "url": "https://www.sapporo-market.gr.jp/",
      "locator": "2026-10-22取得の臨時トップ本文",
      "subjectDate": "2026-10-22取得時点のサイト状態",
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      "locator": "p.1 総計（漁獲尾数・金額・前年同期）",
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          {
            "springYear": 2014,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 39,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.2549019607843137
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2015,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 46,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.3006535947712418
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2016,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 42,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.27450980392156865
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2017,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 43,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.28104575163398693
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2018,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 36,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.23529411764705882
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2019,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 34,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.2222222222222222
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2020,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 46,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.3006535947712418
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2021,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 39,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.2549019607843137
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2022,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 43,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.28104575163398693
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2023,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 35,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.22875816993464052
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2024,
            "days": 153,
            "suitableDays": 45,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.29411764705882354
          },
          {
            "springYear": 2025,
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            "suitableDays": 40,
            "flags": [
              "R"
            ],
            "fraction": 0.26143790849673204
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "acquisitionElapsedSeconds": 1.177,
    "scope": "全道の探索候補・5沿岸域均等平均",
    "cohortDefinitionSource": "S006",
    "temperatureWindow": {
      "min": 8,
      "max": 13,
      "months": [
        3,
        4,
        5,
        6,
        7
      ]
    },
    "model": {
      "type": "ridge-log-linear",
      "lambda": 1,
      "minimumTrainingYears": 5
    },
    "limitations": [
      "採用5沿岸域は北海道5海区全体を表すものではない",
      "地域対応を満たす石狩モデルではない",
      "放流魚の実時期と体サイズを未使用"
    ]
  },
  "futureSignals": {
    "checkedAt": "2026-10-03",
    "referenceYear": 2026,
    "referenceCohort": 2022,
    "eggs2025": {
      "planAchievementPct": 83,
      "asOf": "2026-01-10",
      "sourceId": "S037",
      "claimId": "C054"
    },
    "plan2026": {
      "releaseThousand": 893320,
      "sourceId": "S038",
      "claimId": "C055"
    },
    "conditionMethod": "放流群の戻る数の比較指数＝対応放流数の比率×戻る割合の比率。同じ年齢の放流群だけを考える条件計算で、全道来遊数・価格・品質の予測ではない。"
  },
  "arrivalSignals": {
    "kind": "速報の読み方・来季の数値予測ではない",
    "observedDate": "2026-09-30",
    "publishedAt": "2026-10-16",
    "checkedAt": "2026-10-17",
    "sourceId": "S039",
    "signalYear": 2027,
    "threeYearVsPreviousPct": 39,
    "threeYearVsNormalPct": 11,
    "threeYearSharePct": 2,
    "releaseCohortYear": 2023,
    "releaseBaselineCohortYear": 2022
  }
}